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Six Consistently Close Races Will Probably Decide Control Of The Senate
Dan Sullivan won the Republican nomination for Senate in Alaska on Tuesday night, finalizing our cast of Democratic and Republican candidates for the most competitive Senate races in November....
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Senate Update: A Fresh Look At The Changed Race In Kansas
This is the first installment of the FiveThirtyEight 2014 Campaign Crib Notes, which will highlight polls, our Senate forecast and other news. Crib Notes will come out with increasing frequency the...
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Senate Update: A Push Day On The Polling Front
It’s a push. Wednesday saw a mix of polls, with both Democrats and Republicans receiving good news, and the FiveThirtyEight model continues to give Republicans a little less than a 63 percent chance of...
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Senate Update: Democrats In Purple States Are Beating The National Mood
If feels a little like déjà vu. In the summer of 2012, the national polls and state surveys were telling us very different things about the presidential race. And we’re seeing something similar now....
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Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?
When we officially launched our forecast model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55...
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Senate Update: More Races Become More Competitive
Senate PollsAfter a streak of strong polling days for Democrats, Wednesday marked a turnaround of sorts for Republicans. Their chance of taking back the Senate increased slightly, to about 54 percent....
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Senate Update: Optimistic Numbers For GOP In Colorado And Iowa
The overarching story in the 2014 Senate fight has been that Republicans were slightly favored to win a majority because they have more paths than Democrats to that majority. That remains true. The...
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Senate Update: Don’t Forget About Kentucky And Georgia
Most of the time you read “competitive Senate race” in 2014, you’re reading about states such as Iowa and Colorado.Yet I have to remind myself not to forget about other Senate races that don’t get...
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The ‘Maroon 6’: A Better Way To Look At The 2014 Senate Races
It’s natural to group Senate races based on which party controls the seat in the current Congress. The math seems easy enough. If Republicans win six seats held by Democrats without losing any seats of...
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Senate Update: A Lot Has Changed — And Mostly Stayed The Same
According to the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Republicans have about a 60 percent chance of taking control of the Senate. The GOP’s prospects have stayed relatively consistent over the last...
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Senate Update: It Could All Come Down To Iowa
Electoral junkies — ourselves included — have been fascinated by the prospect Republicans may lose races in red Georgia and redder Kansas. We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact, however, that Republicans...
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One Reason Bruce Braley Still Has A Chance in Iowa
Looking at President Obama’s popularity in Iowa, you might think Democrat Bruce Braley would have little chance of winning the U.S. Senate seat there. Obama’s average approval rating in the state,...
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Senate Update: With 4 Days Left, Here’s The State Of The Races
The GOP’s chances of winning the Senate are 68.5 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, its highest figure of the year.Among the 20 new polls released Thursday — it looks like there will...
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Senate Update: Republicans Lead Where They Need To, But Uncertainty Abounds
As we head toward Election Day, Republicans continue to hold the edge. The GOP has a 68.3 percent chance of taking back the Senate in the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast. The polling out Friday...
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Senate Update: Polls Point Increasingly To Republican Senate Win
By this point in an election year, when polls are coming in by the bucketload late in the evening, you can get a sense for which pollsters are taking fresh samples of public opinion and which are...
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Senate Update: Democrats’ Chance Of Holding On Continues To Fall
In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber. But the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican...
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Democrats Need Chaos
Democrats are down to about a 25 percent chance to retain the Senate, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecast. A 25 percent chance isn’t nothing. The average National League hitter hit about...
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Unskewed Polls, Early Voting Edition
Does the early vote suggest the polls are wrong? Democrats may hope so. The argument goes like this: Sure, the polls show the Republican winning in Colorado, Georgia and Iowa, but the early voting data...
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Something Funny Happened In Iowa, And It May Hurt Democrats In 2016
Republican Sen.-elect Joni Ernst easily won her race in Iowa last Tuesday, beating Democrat Bruce Braley by 8.5 percentage points. Her victory wasn’t shocking, but its size was (to everyone except...
View ArticleSix Consistently Close Races Will Probably Decide Control Of The Senate
Dan Sullivan won the Republican nomination for Senate in Alaska on Tuesday night, finalizing our cast of Democratic and Republican candidates for the most competitive Senate races in November....
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